Bayh Should Be More Discreet

Recently, it was noted that driving around the Manchester area was a car with an Indiana license plate and a "John Lynch for Governor" bumper sticker. It was probably one of the staffers that Bayh hired to work for various Democrats. However, perhaps the campaign workers should be a bit more discreet. After all, it was often noted that former Manchester Mayor Bob Baines used to drive around in a car with a Massachusetts license plate.

Richardson: I Like To Get My Hands Dirty

Responding to a New York Times article on candidates using hand sanitizers, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson said, "I just won’t use the sanitizer. I’ve been offered it, but I’ve turned it down. I’m not afraid to get my hands dirty." Since Warner's departure, Richardson's stock has not increased at all. However, has a prominent hispanic, and former UN Ambassador, he might make an interesting choice for Vice-President. Clinton/Richardson or Obama/Richardson?

GOP Candidates Lack Coattails

To be considered a serious presidential candidate, Governors must help elect their successor to the post. This demonstrates that the candidate is popular in their state. Right now, the three GOP Governors, Pataki, Romney and Huckabee, considering a presidential run are an albatross for the candidates in their states. Here are the results of some data that I collected this afternoon.

Arkansas: Mike Huckabee is term-limited
Hutchinson (R): 40%
Bebe (D): 52%

Massachusetts: Mitt Romney decided not to run for re-election
Healey (R): 29%
Patrick (D): 54%

New York: George Pataki decided not to run for a fourth term
Fazo (R): 21%
Spitzer (D): 61%

Also, in all three of these states it appears that the Democrats will gain seats in the state legislatures. I guarantee we will see countless stories in The Globe and The Herald on Romney's inability to carry Healy into the Corner office. How much will the Republican Governors Association, Romney is head of the group, waste in Massachusetts?

South Carolina Poll: Rudy Tops Favorable Rating

Below is a poll released by the University of South Carolina. It shows that Rudy Giuliani has the highest favorable rating and George Pataki has the lowest. My gut says that, like most polls, it's mostly based on named ID. Will Southerns be in favor of a pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay marriage New Yorker?

Candidate Heard of Favorable Unfavorable
John McCain 96% 65% 23%
Newt Gingrich 95% 53% 31%
Rudy Giuliani 93% 78% 10%
George Pataki 69% 35% 18%
Bill Frist 66% 43% 21%
Mitt Romney 40% 41% 11%
George Allen 37% 38% 11%
Mike Huckabee 16% — —

Obama Hurts Edwards

Robert Novak argues that a potential Barack Obama presidential run would hurt John Edwards, not Hillary Clinton. He explains, "Former Sen. Edwards's campaign strategy is focused on the South Carolina primary, but Obama figures to do well with African-American voters comprising about 40 percent of that state's Democratic primary vote. Obama also could threaten Edwards in the tip-off Iowa caucuses, where polls have shown Edwards leading Clinton." Not to mention, that Obama's life story is more compelling than Edwards. So much for that "Two Americas" stump speech.

Will It Help Romney?

The Boston Globe reported today that the Massachusetts economy is growing faster than the national economy.

"The Massachusetts economy, boosted by demand for technology products, grew twice as fast as the national economy in the third quarter, according to figures released yesterday by the US Department of Commerce and the University of Massachusetts.

The state's economy expanded at an estimated 3.4 percent annual rate in the three-month period ended Sept. 30, compared with 1.6 percent nationally, UMass said. In the previous quarter, the state economy grew at a 3.6 percent annual rate, compared with 2.6 percent nationally."

Governor Romney will probably use this report to demonstrate his effective management of the economy. Also, he will put it in his list of accomplishments as governor of the Commonwealth.

McCain: Add 20,000 Troops

While in Lancaster this evening Senator John McCain said that the United States should sent another 20,000 troops to Iraq. However, he also said, "It's not just a set number." McCain has been calling for more troops since the insurgency started in 2003. Senator McCain's trump card is that as a former Vietnam POW, and member of the Armed Services committee, no one can question his foreign policy credentials.

Working The Phones

Interesting tidbit in the Union Leader, "Also, volunteers at New York Gov. George Pataki's 21st Century Freedom PAC office in downtown Manchester are working the phones as a well." Pataki's people are the only Republican Presidential PAC staff working on behalf of local GOP candidates. Also, those who wish to attend the Laura Bush event must promise to help phone-banking for the NH GOP.

Gravel Travels To The Hill

Former Alaska Senator, and declared Presidential candidate, Mike Gravel will be in New Hampshire on Wednesday November 1st. Senator Gravel will be speaking at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College at 7:00pm. The event is free and open to the public. Senator Gravel became known in the 1970s because he chaired the Senate committee that released The Pentagon Papers.

I Hope It's On Sparknotes

Don't forget about the Karyn Frist book signing. She will be in Nashua tomorrow night at the Barnes & Noble. Her book is entitled, "Love You, Daddy Boy: Daughters Honor the Fathers They Love." Unlike Elizabeth Edwards and Barack Obama there is no planned appearance on Oprah.

Bayh's Visit

While campaigning in the state yesterday, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh made the following comments:

"It starts right here. If we don't change, then we would be the first generation in America to not give our children a more prosperous America."

"We need liberty and justice, not for just a few but for all of us"

"We aren't Democrat or Republican first. We are Americans."

He gave his endorsement to Paul Hodes and Deb Reynolds.

McCain Adds Supporters Before Visit

Today Straight Talk will announce the names of 51 state legislators who are supporting him, more than double the 22 lawmakers who joined McCain in 2000. There are over 400 state legislators in New Hampshire. Thus, McCain is gaining the endorsement of about 12% of the legislature. Senator McCain will be also Dixville Notch tonight and will meet up Congressman Charlie Bass for a series of town hall meetings in Lancaster, Berlin and a spaghetti dinner in Nashua.

Romney appoints 3 minority women

The Boston Globe, a.k.a The New Time's step-child, wrote that, "Governor Mitt Romney yesterday nominated four candidates, including three minority women, to Massachusetts courts.

Romney has faced criticism that he has not nominated enough women or minorities to be judges. In 2005, the Women's Bar Association of Massachusetts chastised the Republican governor. During his first two years, 17 of Romney's 19 nominations were men and only two were minorities."

The question now becomes if the judges are conservative? Would a President Romney appoint a David Souter? If Romney does not list Scalia, Thomas, Roberts or Alito has his favorite Supreme Court justices, Romney could be in trouble.

Rudy Gets Hoover's Endorsement...Rudyvilles?

Today it was announced Mayor Rudy Giuliani has added Margaret Hoover, the great-granddaughter of President Herbert Hoover and a former White House aide under Karl Rove, as an aide to chief fund-raiser Anne Dickinson for his Solutions America PAC. Rudy has some catching-up to do because Romney, Pataki, McCain, Bayh and Clinton have already begun to beef-up their PAC staffs.

First Debate!!

It was annouced today that the first Republican presidential debate in the country will take place in South Carolina. The debate will take place on May 15, 2007 at the University of South Carolina's Koger Center and will be broadcast nationwide on Fox News. No word yet on when and where the first Republican or Democrat debate is in New Hampshire. Will a group try to host a debate in April? If we are going to move the primary ahead, we might as well leap-frog the South Carolina debate.

Same-Sex Ruling

Here is a sample of quotes about today's New Jersey Supreme Court ruling.

Sen. George Allen (R-VA):
“Today’s decision by the NJ Supreme Court is another example of activist judges inventing the law and subverting the will of the people. This is why I support the marriage amendment, because it will protect the values and views of the people of Virginia from judges who would want to impose their elitist views on us. This is a clear difference between my opponent and me – I support protecting marriage from judges who do not understand their role: to interpret the law, not invent the law. My opponent does not. “My opponent says that this amendment would infringe upon the rights of ordinary Virginians, and he opposes it. But I and many members of the Virginia Assembly joined in asking the Attorney General of Virginia to render an opinion. His response: ‘I can find no legal basis for the proposition that passage of the marriage amendment will limit or infringe upon the ordinary civil and legal rights of unmarried Virginians’. “This amendment does exactly what it says it does; it defines marriage as being between one man and one woman, and I’m for marriage between a man and a woman while my opponent is against it.”

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA):
“I believe that the best and most reliable way to protect traditional marriage is through a federal marriage amendment, as opposed to letting activist judges make policy on a state by state basis.”

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS):
"The decision of the New Jersey Supreme Court only deepens the constitutional crisis with respect to the protection of traditional marriage, and warrants swift, decisive action by Congress in the form of passage of the Marriage Protection Amendment. Huge social changes should be decided by the people and their elected representatives and should not be forced by the courts.”

Laura's Coming

The First Lady is coming to Manchvegas on Monday the 30th. First Lady Laura Bush will be at a rally for the state Republican Party and will also attend a GOTV event. She will join a slew of national figures attending events in NH, throughout that week.

Another Spaghetti Dinner

This Friday, John McCain will join Charlie Bass for a Spaghetti Dinner. The dinner will take place at the VFW Hall in Nashua from 5:30 to 7:30. There is no cost to attend.

Frist To GOP: Ignore Iraq

While in New Hampshire yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said that, "The challenge is to get Americans to focus on pocketbook issues, and not on the Iraq and terror issue." The GOP should focus on security and taxes, but ignore the War in Iraq.

Obama: Of Course I Inhaled

While speaking before a group of newspaper editors Barack Obama said, "When I was a kid, I inhaled. That was the point." He went on to say that, "It was reflective of the struggles and confusion of a teenage boy. Teenage boys are frequently confused." The New Times also reported that, "Obama had written in his first book, “Dreams From My Father” (1995), before entering politics, that he had used marijuana and cocaine (“maybe a little blow”). He said he had not tried heroin because he did not like the pusher who was trying to sell it to him." Well at least Obama was honest about his drug use. Who will be the next presidential candidate to talk about his drug habits.

Will Rudy Play In The South?

Will the following prove to be a bigger problem for Rudy? New York Post write Maggie Haberman writes, ". . . Campaigning with Giuliani presented a delicate balance for Corker, because the New York ex-mayor's pro-choice, pro-gay rights stands could be problematic with the right-leaning voters to whom he's appealing." Rudy spend the day campaigning with Bob Corker in Tennessee. Corker is in a close race against Rep. Harold Ford and has been trying to soar-up his conservative credentials. If Rudy's presence can cause trouble in TN, how will his presence on a national ticket affect his chances of winning South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama...

New Hampshire Loves Obama

It appears that New Hampshire Democrats are beginning to fall for Senator Barack Obama. Former radio talk show host and NECN favorite Arnie Arnesen said, "He's everything we want. You know why? Because he doesn't have a record. He's charming, he's attractive, he's articulate. He's our Rorschach test." Moreover, fomer Bill Clinton supporter and New Hampshire powerhouse attorney Chris Gallagher told the Concord Monitor, "He's obviously very smart. He's obviously very popular. He has star power. He may have more experience with Vogue and Annie Leibovitz than he does on the Senate floor. There seems to be no perfect package at the moment combining experience, substance and electability." Barack is becoming the anti-Clinton candidate that Bayh is trying to become. One of the differences between Bayh and Obama, Obama does not put people to sleep. Then again Bayh contains the experience that Obama lacks. Obama's entrance has already begun to change the dynamics of the race.

Let's Wait For His First Visit To The Granite State

Democrat Senator Barack Obama made the following comments yesterday "Given the responses that I've been getting over the last several months, I have thought about the possibility. My main focus right now is in the '06. ... After November 7, I'll sit down, I'll sit down and consider, and if at some point I change my mind, I will make a public announcement and everybody will be able to go at me." Could a four-year Senator with no legislative success or foreign policy experience be elected President? After all, Obama does come for the same state that saw an actor (Reagan) and a one-term Congressman (Lincoln) elected President of the United States.

Bayh Wants Some Credit

This is an interesting tidbit from the Indy Star.

"U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh hopes to get a share of the credit if Indiana Democrats do well at the polls next month.

Bayh's camp says he has been a model for how Democrats can win in Indiana, a model Bayh would take to other red states if he decides to run for president.

Bayh has campaigned with the state's most competitive congressional challengers and has more visits planned, including a trip Thursday and Friday.

The senator's initial electoral success is based on his father, former Sen. Birch Bayh, who also has been spending much of the month helping the same candidates.

Birch Bayh was clearly enjoying himself and the way he and his son are sometimes confused, as he addressed labor groups on behalf of Democrat Baron Hill on Thursday.

The elder Bayh, 78, said a man at a previous campaign appearance had grabbed him by the arm, saying he'd worked for Bayh's father 40 years ago.

"You did?" Birch Bayh asked him. "You sure you worked for my dad?"

"Yup," the man replied. "I worked hard for the old man."

"I am the old man," Bayh responded."

Senator Bayh will be in the state tomorrow. He also also paid PAC members working on various campaigns in the state. Seems that Bayh's approach is similar to Pataki's. That is, stay under the radar and build-up support through hardwork and personal connections.

Caucus Cooler

Below are the results of the odds of various presidential wanna-bes to win the Iowa Caucus. The results can be found here: http://caucuscooler.blogspot.com/

The Cooler Line

Mitt Romney 7-2
John McCain 5-1
George Pataki 7-1
Rudy Giuliani 8-1
Field 12-1
Mike Huckabee 25-2
Bill Frist 22-1
George Allen 25-1
Newt Gingrich 32-1
Sam Brownback 33-1
Chuck Hagel 500-1
John Cox 998-1
Condi Rice- OFF

How does the Iowa caucus affect the New Hampshire primary? Ask John Kerry and John Edwards the effect it can have. Both men had strong finishes that propelled them into the 2004 primary. Will the same happen in 2008?? I think it might, a weak showing by either McCain or Romney could spell trouble for them in New Hampshire. Especially, since McCain has to finish strong in Iowa to prevent stop an insurgent candidate like Romney.

Pataki Preps For His Visits To NH

From today's Union Leader:

"New York Gov. George Pataki, who has planted $56,000 in seed money with Republican state Senate candidates since summer, plans visits here on Oct. 30 and Nov. 4 to pump up his Presidential aspirations.

Pataki will hit a Portsmouth event a week from tomorrow, then head off on what his camp calls a seven-state barnstorming tour. Stops in Michigan, New York, Florida, Iowa, South Carolina and Delaware are scheduled, along with a return to New Hampshire on Nov. 4."

So far Frist will be visting on the 23rd, McCain on the 27th, Rudy on the 3rd and Pataki on the 4th. Also, this will be Pataki's tenth trip to the state. He will be tied Mitt Romney with the most visits to the Granite State. However, his November 4th trip will be his eleventh time in the state.