New Hampshire Presidential Watch (2008): Election Predictions

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Election Predictions

For whatever it is worth, here are my election predictions:

-Dems win House, 225-210
-GOP keeps Senate, 52-48
-Chafee, Santorum, Dewine and Talent all lose
-Steele, Allen, Corker and Burns win
-Bass and Bradley win in close races:
-Bass, 52-48
-Bradley, 55-45
-Romney or Bayh will announce they are running for President on either Thursday or Friday.

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Number of Times Democratic Presidential Candidates Have Visited NH In 2007

Number of Times Republican Presidential Candidates Have Visited NH In 2007

Who Works For Whom? The Dems

Biden: Jim Ryan, NH Chair; Heidi Mitchell, Deputy State Director; Evan Carlson, Press Secretary; Steve Shurtleff, Merrimack County Field Director; Bill Hatch, Regional Field Director for the North Country
Clinton: Nick Clemons, State Director; Sarah Nolan, Political Director; Tracey Lewis, State Field Coordinator; Kathleen Strand, Press Secretary; Liz Purdy, "a senior advisor"
Dodd: Sean Downey, Political Director; Steve Gerencser, State Director; Dana Kelly, Field Director; Bryan DeAngelis, Press Secretary; Maura Keefe, Senior Advisor; Joe Keefe, State Co-Chair, Dave Lang State Co-Chair
Edwards: Beth Leonard, State Director; James Katz, Political Director
Gravel: Elliott Jacobson, New Hampshire State Director/National Field Director; Jon Kraus, Campus Coordinator; Jim Dupont, Scheduler
Kucinich: Michael Klein, National Campaign Manager; Pat Frisella, NH Media / Communications
Obama: Matt Rodriguez, State Director; Mike Cuzzi, Deputy State Director; Rob Hill, Field Director; Leslie Miller, Communications Director; Reid Cherlin, Press Secretary
Richardson: Janis Hahn, Statewide Director; State Rep. Daniel McKenna (Derry), Political Director; Alex Goepfert, Spokesman; Co-Chair NH State Representative Candace Bouchard (Concord), Co-Chair Democratic Activist Dick Bouley (Concord), Co-Chair Former NHDP State Chair Jeff Woodburn (Whitefield), Co-Chair Former NH Commissioner of Labor Jim Casey (Dover)

Who Works For Whom? The GOP

Giuliani: Wayne Semprini, Chairman; Jennifer Hallowell, Executive Director; David Tille, Campaign Manager; Jeff Grappone, Press Secretary; B. David Chesley, Field Director
Huckabee: Cliff Hurst, Co-Chairman; Fred Bamante, Co-Chairman; Deb Vanderbeek, Campaign Manager
Hunter: Bob Bevill, State Director; Bernie Dolan, Deputy State Director
McCain: Peter Spaulding, Co-Chairman; Nancy Merrill, Co-Chairwoman; Jim Barnett, Campaign Manager; Sarah Crawford, Deputy Campaign Manager; Bryan Bernys, Field Director; Crystal Benton, Press Secretary
Paul: Jared Chicoine, Field Director; Jordan Brown; Kate Rick, Communications Director
Romney: Bruce Keough, Chairman; Jim Merrill, Director; Jamie Burnett, Political Director; Craig Stevens, Press Secretary
Tancredo: Shelly Uscinski, Campaign Manager; Tim Easson, Eric Green
F. Thompson: Christopher Wood, Political Director; Bill Cahill, advisor

Endorsements of Political Officials for Dems

Biden: Rep. Jim Ryan (Franklin), Committee to Elect House Democrats Chairman; Ron Pieper, Milford Democratic Town Chair; Mayor Eileen Dondero Foley (Portsmouth); Mary Carey Foley, activist, teacher (Portsmouth); Joe Russell, Stratham Planning Board; Steve Arnold, Detective. Former President of NH Police Association; State Reps: Dan Eaton; Peter Franklin; Jim Webber (Kingston); Steve Shurtleff (Concord), Assistant Majority Leader; Robert Haley (Manchester), Manchester Fire Commissioner; Mark Preston (Portsmouth); Bill Hatch (Gorham); Mike Marsh (Greenland)
Clinton: Bill Shaheen, former U.S. Rep. Dick Swett, Donna Soucy; Debora Pignatelli, Executive Councilor; Senate President Larsen, State Senator Deb Reynolds, Molly Kelly, Iris Estabrook, Kathy Sgambati (Tilton); Lou D'Allesandro (Manchester); Maggie Wood Hassan (Exeter); Betsi DeVries (Manch.), House Speaker Teri Norelli; House Majority Leader Representative Mary Jane Wallner (Concord), Assistant House Majority Leader Bette Lasky (Nashua), Manchester City Democratic Committee Chairman Chris Pappas, State Representatives: Davide Pierce; Claire Clarke; William Knowles; Joan Schulze; Mary Sysyn; Eleanor Kjellman; Thomas McGuirk; Anne Grassie; Robert Hebert; Delmar Burridge; Suzanne Beauchesne; Roger Berube; Paul Hackel (Nashua); Peter H. Allen (Harrisville); Peter Cote (Nashua); John DeJoie (Concord); Carol Estes (Plymouth); Raymond Gagnon (Claremont); Doreen Howard (Newmarket); Jean Jeudy (Manchester); Bernie Benn, Steve Johnson (Manchester); Melanie Levesque (Brookline); Ricia McMahon (North Sutton); Martha McLeod (Franconia); Edgar Mears (Berlin); Michael Reuschel (Manchester); Deanna Rollo (Rollinsford); Michael Rollo (Rollinsford); Jim Splaine (Portsmouth); Hector Velez (Manchester); Jane Wood (Laconia); Mar Burridge (Keene), Jane Clemons (Nashua), David Cote (Nashua), Carol Friedrich (Wentworth), Jill Shaffer Hammond (Peterborough), Angeline Kopka (Nashua), Gus Lerandeau, (Keene), Anthony Matarazzo (Nashua), Trinka Russell (Stratham), Janet Wall (Madbury), Deborah Wheeler (Northfield), Lori Movsesian (Nashua), Barbara Shaw (Manchester), James Cyr (Strafford), Catriona Beck (Bennington), Tom Fargo
Dodd: Former New Hampshire Congressman Norman D'Amours, Former NH Dem Chairman Joe Keefe, Peter Glenshaw, Co-Founder of Democracy for New Hampshire; Erika Thorsell, Chair Concord City Democrats; John Hatten, Secretary Concord City Democrats; Beth Campbell, Co-Chair State Democratic Labor Caucus, Treasurer, Merrimack County Democrats; State Reps: Marcia Moody (New Market); Catherine Mulholland, (Grafton); Mike Brunelle (Manchester), Mary Stuart Gile (Concord) House Education Committee Chair Emma Rous (Durham), Mike Farley (Manchester), Maureen Nagle (Manchester), Mike O'Brien (Nashua), Sandra Smith (Manchester), Dan Sullivan (Manchester), Frank Sullivan (Manchester)
Edwards: State Senators Joe Foster, David Gottesman (Nashua), Peter Burling (Cornish), Chairman of Merrimack County Dems Rob Werner, Rep. Linda Foster, NH House Deputy Speaker, State Reps: Jennifer Brown, Robert Srnec, Robert Watson, Marlene DeChane, Jack Kelley, Judith Day; Carolyn Lisle, Suzanne Harvey, Timothy Butterworth, Tim Dunn, Peter Espiefs, Ronald Mack, Timothy Robertson, Sharon Nordgen, Jay Phinizy; David Essex; Don Brueggeman, Jackie Cali-Pitts, Claudia Chase, Steve Destefano, David Essex, Patrick Garrity, Joe Miller, M.D., Gary Richardson, Otto Grote, Rob Theberge, Chuck Weed, Frank Davis, Vincent Greco, Gary Richardson, Frank Tupper
Kucinich: State Rep. Barbara French
Obama: Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter; Congressman Paul Hodes; Gary and Meg Hirshberg; State Senator Senator Jackie Cilley (Barrington); Martha Fuller Clark, Harold Janeway (Webster); Kate Hanna (fmr. Lynch legal counsel), Alan Reische (fmr. Lynch '06 finance chair) and Debby Butler (fmr. Lynch '06 co-chair); State Reps: Jess Martineau, Dennis Abbott, Eileen Flockhart, John Henson, Sarah Hurtz, Cindy Rosenwald, Nashua; Kris Roberts; Ed Butler (Hart's Location); Nickolas Levasseur (Manchester); Tara Sad (Walpole); Lucy Weber (Walpole) Maggie Porter (Merrimack); Borden (New Castle) Susan Almy, Liz Blanchard (Penacook), Ed Butler (Hart's Location), Sally Kelly of Chichester, Sid Lovett of Holderness, Nancy Warren and Deborah Billian of Rochester, Jim Powers of Portsmouth, Jim Kennedy of Exeter and C. Pennington "Penn" Brown of Epping, Reps. Jennifer Daler of Temple, Jane Kelley of Hampton, Shawn Mickelonis of Rochester, Bonnie Mitchell of Jaffrey, Kay Oppenheimer of Strafford, Carla Skinder of Cornish, Veteran Lobbyist Jim Demers, Former NH Dems Chairman Ned Helms, State Senate legal counsel Jeffrey Meyers, veteran lobbyist Jim Monahan, Keene City Councilor Jim Duffy, Keene High School Principal (and Republican) Alan Chmiel, Keene police prosecutor Eliezer Rivera and Strafford County Commissioner Ronald Chagnon
Richardson: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand; Former Ambassador George Bruno; Former Manchester Mayor Bob Baines; State Representatives: Susan Kepner (Hampton); Jane Beaulieu (Manchester); Pat Long; Maurice Pilotte; Joel Winters; Eileen Ehlers (Hooksett), Armand Forest - Alderman (Manchester), Dana Hilliard (Somersworth), Scott Merrick (Lancaster), Steve Spratt (Greenville), John Knowles (Hudson), Mary Ann Knowles (Hudson), Tara Reardon (Concord), Grafton County Commissioner Mike Cryans (Hanover), Former State Representative Gloria Seldin (Concord), Former Cheshire County Commissioner Richard Daschbach (Exeter), Greta Moran - Former Hillsborough Democratic County Chair (Merrimack), Portsmouth Town Democratic Committee Chairman Peter Somssich

Endorsements of Political Officials for GOP

Giuliani: Manchester Mayor Frank Giunta, Ambassador Joe Petrone, Former New Hampshire United States Representative Bill Zeliff, Executive Council Member Raymond Wieczorek, former State House Speaker Douglas Scamman, Tom Christo, Georgi Hippauf, State Reps: Susan Emerson, Stephen Stepanek, Carolyn Brown, Chris Christensen, John Grahm, Russell Day, Mary Gile
Huckabee: Former Executive Councilor Ruth Griffin; Sen. Bob Clegg (Hudson), Former Senator and Executive Council Candidate Russell Prescott; Former Executive Councilor, State Senator and State Representative Dave Wheeler; 2006 Republican candidate for governor Jim Coburn, Former Manchester Mayor Emile Beaulieu; State Reps: Julie Brown; Sandra Reeves (Manchester); Jason Bedrick (Windham); Dan Dumaine (Auburn); Frank Emiro (Londonderry); Ryan Hansen (Milford)
Hunter: Former US Senator Bob Smith
McCain: Former US Senator Warren Rudman, Sullivan County Commissioner Maureen Barrows and Portsmouth School Board John Lyons, County Commissioner Donald Stritch, former Dover City Councilor Matt Mayberry, State Sen. Ted Gatsas (Manchester); Jack Barnes (Raymond), State Senators John Gallus (Berlin), State Senator Mike Downing (Salem), Sen. Peter Bragdon (Milford), State Representatives: Karen Hutchinson; John Flanders; Sharon Carson; Carolyn Gargasz; Fred King Sr., Eric Stohl, John Tholl, Jr., Bill Remick. Liz Hager (Concord), Peter Begin (Amherst), Keith Hirschmann (Manchester), Toni Soltoni (Epsom), Kevin Waterhouse (Windham), Sharon Carson (Londonderry), Gene Chandler (Bartlett), Karen Hutchinson (Londonderry), Rip Holden (Goffstown), Maureen Mooney (Merrimack), Andy Peterson (Peterborough), Rudolph Holden (Goffstown)
Paul: Former State Representative Tom Langlais; Former New Hampshire state Representative Barbara Hagan of Manchester; State Reps: Paul Ingbretson, Lars T Christiansen
Romney: U.S. Senator Judd Gregg; Bruce Keough, former New Hampshire Senate President Tom Eaton, former State Senator Chuck Morse, former House Speaker Donna Sytek, Ovide Lamontagne, Gordon McDonald, Sheriff Dan Collis. Sen. Bob Letourneau, R-Derry, State Representatives: House GOP Leader Michael Whalley (Alton); Mark Pearson; Maurice Villeneuve; Ken Hawkins; Bruce Heald; Anthony DiFruscia; Marilinda Garcia; David Dalrymple; Christopher Ahlgren; DJ Bettencourt; Betsey Patten; Beverly Rodeschin; Mary Griffin (Windham), Pamela Price (Nashua) County Commissioner Bing Judd, County Commissioner Toni Pappas, Sheriff Dan Linehan
Tancredo: State Reps: Dan Itse (Fremont); Jordan Ulery (Hudson)