Sunday, January 06, 2008

Debunking The McCain-Obama Independent Voter Myth

A popular theory that has developed over the past couple of days is that independent voters in New Hampshire are deciding between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Last night, UNH's polling-guru Andrew Smith debunked that theory.

"They're fighting for different block of voters," he told us.

Smith contends that McCain is vying for independents who lean Republican, while Obama wants to gain independents who traditionally vote Democratic.

Dante "GraniteProf" Scala also contends that this theory is fiction.

"New Hampshire voters deciding between Obama and McCain probably is no more than 3 to 4 percent of ALL likely primary voters, at most," he wrote.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

How can you take Obama seriously, he doesn't say anything but change. He's changing what. I've been researching and found out he's won a Grammy for Spoken Word and nothing for his voters. So, how can we elect someone for our children's future that discusses change without providing us a plan. Check out his resume, I think he needs to change somethings before he becomes our President

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/barack-obama.htm

Tony said...

Andy may know more than us but I wonder about this. At the McCain event in Salem yesterday, the first questioner literally said, 'I'm an independent voter who supported you in 2000 but now I'm torn between you and Obama ...' paraphrasing ... so, it is out there. It isn't a media concoction.

Stephen said...

This is NOT a media myth. Reporters have talked to people - on air - who have said they are torn between McCain and Obama. Both are liberals, so I can see how this could be possible.

Anonymous said...

On second thought...

It may be that the "mythical" McCain-Obama voter is the best explanation for the total failure of the polls to forecast Obama losing to Clinton. That is, a large segment of the "McCain or Obama Undeclareds" waited until the last moment to decide where their vote would do the most good. They heard the pundits declare Hillary dead, so they decided that voting for Obama was a wasted vote. They voted for McCain, Obama lost.

Sounds plausible to me.

Carrington said...

I met one of the Obama-McCain voters while canvassing for Obama. I talked with McCain canvassers who were quite straight up about competing with us.

It may be a small group... but it's funny that I ran into them.

And of course polls are never wrong.

Anonymous said...

i hope all you liberals are happy now that you have completely destroyed the very fabric that kept this country strong. you can now have your strawberry short cake land.where everyone is equally as screwed up as you all are.

Carrington Ward said...

Yup. Never trust those lib'ruls from Connecticut (via Texas). Eight years in power and the nation is sliding into the dustbin of history.